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2002
07/18/02 - If
We Must, Some Thoughts On Deflation (P,t)
03/07/02 - 01Q4
Weak GDP, Weaker Hours A Sign Of Recovery (D,t)
02/14/02 - Given
Nominal Growth, Earnings Forecasts Too Optimistic (E,d,t)
2001
10/12/01 - Taylor
Rule Suggests Fed Target Rate Not Inappropriate (F,t)
10/04/01 - Real
Short Rates Are Not That Low (E,f,t)
05/16/01 - Payroll
Employment Redesign Continues (D,t)
04/06/01 - Steepening
Yield Curve Points To Recovery (T,f,e)
2000
11/14/00 - Wicksell
Suggests No Rate Cuts Near-Term (T,f,e)
10/20/00 - Swap
Curve Has Narrowed, Still Not Inverted (F,e,t)
10/13/00 - Consumption,
Income, & Wealth: Part II (C,e,t)
10/12/00 - Consumption,
Income, & Wealth: Part I (C,e,t)
10/05/00 - Initial
Sep Payroll Change Revised Up A Lot (D,t)
08/24/00 - Uncovering
the New Consensus Paradigm, Part II (E,t)
08/16/00 - Uncovering
The New Consensus Paradigm, Part I (E,t)
05/19/00 - Jobless
Rate Below Natural Rate; Rates Up More (T,l,f)
04/24/00 - Comparing
The CPI To The Consumption Deflator (P,t,d)
04/18/00 - Inflation
Up; Bad News For Fed, Stocks, & Bonds (P,f,t)
01/10/00 - Why
Is Payroll Job Growth Stronger Than Hhold Growth? (L,t,d)
1999
10/25/99 - Stocks
To Continue To Have Little Impact On Spending (C,t)
1998
09/03/98 - With
Capital Stock Replenished & Profits Dismal, Equipment Spending
Should Weaken Noticeably (E,t)
08/26/98 - Capital
Gains Tax Payments Distorting Saving Rate (D,t,c)
08/26/98 - Broad
Limitations Of Saving Rate Measures (D,t,c)
01/14/98 - Keynes’
Corridor: World Economy Likely To Adjust Without Major Policy
Intervention (T,i)
01/09/98 - Recent
Narrowing In Yield Curve Does Not Point To Weaker Economy
(F,e,t)
1997
07/03/97 - Rating
The Independence Of Central Banks Around The World (F,i,t)
07/02/97 -
10-Year
Note-Nominal GDP Premium Is Relatively Low (E,t)
04/23/97 -
Analysis
Of Geometric-Mean CPI (P,d,t)
04/22/97 -
Technical
Adjustments Continue To Improve CPI (D,p,t)
03/07/97 -
Stock
Market Strength’s Paradoxical Impact On Consumption
(C,t)
1995-1996
12/06/96 - CPI
Overstates COLA But Less Than Boskin Commission Suggests
(P,t,d)
12/04/96 - Flawed
Establishment Survey To Be Redesigned (D,t)
10/29/96 - Why
The Household Job Data May Be Better Than The Payroll Data
(D,l,t)
08/15/96 - The
Taylor Rule Suggests Rising Rates In 1996-97 (T,e)
06/20/96 - Using
Retail Sales & Other Data In Estimating Consumption
(D,c,t)
04/10/96 - Temp
Workers Affecting Labor Market Efficiency (L,t,d)
03/14/96 - The
Bond Market As Predictor Of Fed Policy (F,t)
02/09/96 - Are
Inflated Stock Market Expectations Leading To Less Consumption?
(C,t)
09/11/95 - Using
Fed Funds Rate To Derive Realistic Ranges For Long Bond Yields
(F,t)
07/12/95 - Taylor
Policy Rule Has Successfully Tracked Fed Funds Changes
(T,f)
05/17/95 - Cyclical
Stocks Have Outperformed Consumer Stocks Since February; Higher
Rates Likely (F,t)
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