Commentaries ...more
10/07/24 - Upside Data Surprises Erode Fed Confidence in Rate Cuts (F,l)
08/23/24 - Payroll Benchmark to Erase -818K Jobs; Trend Still Solid (L)
08/07/24 - Fed Is Ready to 'Party Like Its 2019'; History Says Think Again (F,l)
07/29/24 - Recession Indicator? It's Not the Sahm Old Song (L,e)
04/30/24 - Don't Mind the Gap: Household Jobs Are Not Warning (L)
2023
08/08/23 - Jobs Trend Healthy, Strikes Have Little Impact (L)
07/18/23 - Hollywood Strikes Will Hold Down July Payrolls (L)
05/12/23 - UI Claims Spike Caused by Massive Fraud in Massachusetts (L)
05/09/23 - BLS Jobs Data: They’re Real, and They’re Spectacular-ly OK (L)
09/02/22 - Labor Day Brings Strong Jobs Market Outlook (L)
07/13/22 - Payroll Jobs Are Likely to Maintain Healthy Growth (L)
02/02/22 - Uncertain January Employment Picture Muddled Further (L)
01/27/22 - Labor Market Recovery Varies Sharply by State (L)
2021
11/29/21 - Smaller States Face More Severe Labor Shortages (L)
11/22/21 - UI Fraud Led to Millions of Fake Beneficiaries (L,g)|
06/26/21 - Workers Will Return to Offices in Coming Months, Mostly (L)
05/17/21 - ‘Red’ State Cuts Will Slash UI Benefit Rolls by -2MM (G,l)
05/13/21 - Yes, Too-Generous UI Benefits Are Taking a Big Toll on Jobs (G,l)
03/05/21 - February Jobs Were Even Stronger than They Appeared (L)
02/10/21 - Fiscal Stimulus: Little Near-Term Benefit, Huge Medium-Term Costs (G,l)
02/05/21 - Workweek Hits Record-High as Firms Surf Second Wave (L)
2020
11/20/20 - Rampant Fraud Has Distorted UI Claims Results (L)
06/19/20 - Initial UI Claims Paint Misleading Picture of Economy (L,d)
06/08/20 - May Jobs Data Were Legitimately Better than April (L)
05/08/20 - Deep Dive into Depths of the April Employment Report (L)
04/27/20 - Expanded UI Benefits Will Slow the Recovery (G,l)
04/06/20 - March 'True Jobless Rate 7%, April Could be 25% (L,e)
03/23/20 - Unemployment Should Spike Above 25% for April (L,e)
01/12/20 - 2019: Labor Market Year in Review (L)
01/08/20 - New Minimum Wage, OT Rules Bring Raises, Job Losses (L)

2019
10/07/19 - 2020 Census to Hire -200K Fewer Temps than in 2010 (G,l)
08/21/19 - BLS Payroll Benchmark to Erase -501K Jobs; Trend Still Solid (L,d)
03/08/19 - Labor Markets Are Still Strong & Improving (L)
03/06/19 - ‘True’ Wage Growth Is Running +5%, Will Pick Up Further (L)
02/04/19 - Soft January Household Jobs Gain Is No Cause for Alarm (L)
01/04/19 - Job Trends Stayed Fit in 2018, Resolved for More Gains in 2019 (L)
01/02/19 - Minimum Wages Rose in 20 States in January (L)

2018
10/05/18 - Payroll Jobs Gain Is Stronger than It Seems (L)
08/10/18 - Age Mix of the Workforce Is Not Holding Down Wages (L,d)
07/11/18 - History Shows Wage Acceleration Can Happen Fast (L)
05/04/18 - Supreme Court Poised to Blast Public Sector Unions (L)
04/12/18 - Jobs Shortfall in March Reflected Shifts in the Weather (L)
03/20/18 - Puerto Rico Migration Having Only Modest Impact on U.S. Jobs (L)
03/12/18 - Million-Jobs Surge in Household Survey Nice, But No Signal (L)
01/10/18 - Labor Trends Stayed Fit in 2017, Resolved for Gains in 2018 (L)
01/02/18 - Minimum Wages Rose in 18 States in January (L,g)

2017
12/08/17 - Labor Market Back to ‘Normal,’ Continues to Tighten (L)
10/06/17 - Labor Markets Are Clearly Back to 'Normal' (L)
09/08/17 - BLS Birth-Death Payroll Model 99.9% Correct, as Usual (D,l)
08/24/17 - BLS Household Survey Shows Wages Growing Briskly (L)
04/20/17 - More Labor Slack than U-3 Says But Less than Doves Hope (L)
01/04/17 - Minimum Wage Up in 20 States, Some by +10% or More (G,l)

2016
11/18/16 - U.S. Economy Does Have Labor Slack, But Not Much (L,d)
11/15/16 - ADP Jobs Model Gets Bragging Rights, For Now (D,l)
08/26/16 - Government ‘Helping Hand’ Is Choking Potential GDP (G,l)
06/09/16 - Labor Market Still Healthy; Jobs to Trend Up Near +150K (L)
05/20/16 - New OT Rules Will Hurt Many, Put Drag on Economy (G,l)
04/08/16 - Fed Overestimates Labor Slack, Underestimates Need for Hikes(L,f)
03/04/16 - February Slump in Wages, Hours Was Likely Exaggerated (L)
01/08/16 - Now at Full Employment, Fed Will Focus on Inflation in 2016 (L,f)

2015
10/20/15 - Slowdown in Goods Sector Is Weighing Down Jobs Gains (L)
07/10/15 - Labor Trends Support Decision to Start Rate Hikes – Soon (L,f)
05/08/15 - Productivity Debates Have Little Productive Use (D,l)
04/08/15 - One Soft Jobs Report Will Not Derail Fed’s Rate-Hike Plans (F,l)
04/03/15 - Never Mind: Yellen Backtracks on Sluggish Wage Concerns (F,l)
03/06/15 - Productivity Gains Should Break Out of Current Rut (L)
02/06/15 - Private Jobs Growing at Fastest Pace of Millennium (L)
01/12/15 - Jobless Rate Improvement Legitimate, Will Continue in 2015 (L)

2014
10/08/14 - New Labor Indicators Offer More Noise than News (L)
10/07/14 - Unemployment, By Any Measure, Keeps Getting Better (L)
09/11/14 - Labor Participation Likely to Edge Down in Coming Years (L)
07/17/14 - Full-Time Jobs Growth Is Leading Labor Market Recovery (L)
07/15/14 - Labor Participation Rate Is Likely to Remain Subdued (L)
06/23/14 - Yellen's ‘Broad Assessment’ Shows Clear Labor Improvement (L,f)
06/13/14 - 'Good' Jobs Are Keeping Pace with 'Bad' Ones (L)
04/08/14 - The Long and Short of Unemployment Rates (L)
03/11/14 - The Winter of Our Labor Discontent (L)
02/20/14 - Storms to Have Limited Impact on February Job Gains (L)
02/13/14 - ACA Cuts Labor Force, Jobs and Most Households’ Income (G,l)
01/24/14 - EUC End Should Not Lower Jobless Rate in January (L,g)
01/14/14 - 2013:A Pretty Good Year for Labor Markets (L)

2013
09/13/13 - Beneath the Noise and Fretting, Labor Markets Firming (L)
08/08/13 - Labor Markets Continue to Improve Despite Naysayers(L)
07/09/13 - Improving Labor Markets Are Not a Part-Time Job (L)
07/02/13 - UI Cuts Will Help Lower Jobless Rate Some in 2013-14 (L,g)
06/07/13 - Labor Markets Are Firming; Jobs Growth Should Pick Up (L)
06/06/13 - Labor Participation Trend Should Continue to Decline (L)
04/19/13 - Labor Market OK: High Workweek Trumps Participation (L)
04/03/13 - Faster Growth in Temp Sector Bodes Well for Coming Job Gains (L)
03/08/13 - Elevated Workweek, Wages Point to Further Job Gains (L)
03/06/13 - Housing-Related Jobs Should Pick Up Noticeably in 2013-14 (L,e)
02/22/13 - Demographics Are Driving Down Labor Participation Rates (L)
02/08/13 - Government ‘Help’ Is Boosting Duration of Unemployment (L)

2012
11/06/12 - Workers Over 54 Are Claiming Lion’s Share of New Jobs (L)
10/10/12 - Unemployment: No Conspiracy, Maybe Some Volatility (L)
07/12/12 - Quest for 'True' Measures of Labor Market Slack (L,d)
07/06/12 - Workweek Continues to Offset Soft Payroll Gains (L)
06/06/12 - ‘Lost’ UI Claimants Reflect Better Economy, Not Budget Cuts (L,d)
05/04/12 - Labor Participation Drop Mostly Reflects Demographics (L,d)
03/15/12 - Overruling Okun's Law: Jobless Rate 'Gap' Is No Mystery (L,d)
02/22/12 - Large Firms Are Leading the Jobs Recovery (L)
02/09/12 - Jobs Growth Likely to Take Off (to Moderate Flight Path) (L)

2011
01/12/11 - Payroll Jobs Trend Likely to Improve Further in 2011 (L)

2010
06/22/10 - Rising Workweek Partly Explains Weak Payroll Gains (L)
06/04/10 - Most Labor Indicators Show US Back to Work (L)
04/20/10 - CSI Economics: Post-Mortem of Recession Job Losse (L)
03/18/10 - February Flakes Bring March (Payroll) Madness (L)
03/17/10 - Census to Boost Payrolls by +100K in March, +500K in May (L)
02/16/10 - Severe Storms Will Chill Upcoming Claims,Jobs Reports (L)
02/04/10 - Real Drama Lies in Details in January Jobs Report (L)
01/15/10 - Jobless Rate to Remain Disturbingly High in 2010 AND 2011 (D,l)

2009
11/23/09 - Payroll Survey Tarnished, But Still 'Gold Standard' (L,D)
11/18/09 - Jobless Rate Should Peak Soon, Decline Some in 2010 (L)
10/09/09 - Expect 3 Years, Probably More, to Recoup Job Losses (L)
10/08/09 - Payroll Birth-Death Model Missed Badly in 09Q1 (L,d)
09/29/09 - Extended UI Benefits to Impede Labor Market Improvement (L)
07/22/09 - Wealth Losses, Extended UI Benefits Boosting Jobless Rate (L)
06/26/09 - Modest Job Gains, Falling Jobless Rate by Year-End (L)
05/14/09 - Debunking the Payroll Birth-Death Model Canard Again (D, l)
01/16/09 - Labor Markets Bad, But Not That Bad (L,d)

2008
09/12/08 - Jobless Rate Exaggerated, But Labor Markets to Worsen Some  (L,d)
08/21/08 - Payroll Jobs Volatility Has Declined as Data Improve (D,l
05/23/08 - Putting Payroll Revision Fears to BED, Again (D,l)
05/14/08 - Labor Markets Are Holding Up Relatively Well (L)
05/08/08 - BLS Birth-Death Model Does Track Business Cycles (D, l)
02/12/08 - Claims, Household Jobs Show No Cycle Turning Point (Yet)  (L,e)

2007
07/20/07 - Payroll Survey Is Doing the Job: Economy Is Okay (L,d)
05/22/07 - Payroll Data Appear Sound; No Sign of Major Benchmark (L,d)

2006
10/12/06 - Post-March ‘06 Jobs Growth Likely to Be Revised Up Too (L,d)
07/14/06 - Soft Payroll Job Gains Likely Overstate Slowdown (L)
05/18/06 - Youth Employment Has Fallen and Won't Get Up (L)
05/10/06 - Compensation Growth Not Alarming, Should Not Trouble Fed (L)
04/07/06 - Labor Market Is As Tight As it Appears (L,d)
03/16/06 - Tightening Utilization Argues that Fed Will Not Ease in 2006-07 (F,l)
02/16/06 - Blizzard Should Not Melt February Payroll Job Gains (L,e)

2004
11/05/04 - Economy’s Good, But Not As Good As October Jobs Suggest (L) 
11/05/04 - Jobless Rate Apt to Stay Low Even If Payroll Gains Turn Softer (L) 
10/08/04 - Hours, Wage Trends Present More Upbeat View of Economy (L) 
08/24/04 - Accelerating Benefits More Than Offset Dismal Wage Growth (L) 
07/13/04 - Strong Job Gains Should Continue Despite Soft June (L,d)
04/27/04 - After '03 Gap, Industrial Prod and GDP Goods Show Strong Gains (D,l)
04/02/04 - UI-Based Revisions Show Much Stronger 03Q2-Q3 Income Gains (L,d)
03/24/04 - Jobless Rate Does Not Show Much Labor Market Slack(L,g)
03/12/04 - Ample Reason for Optimism on Jobs (L)
03/10/04 - ‘Jobless Recovery’ Exaggerated In Length and Depth  (L)
03/08/04 - ‘90s Bubble Inflated Payrolls; Recent Softness Is Partly Payback (L,d)
02/19/04 - Low-Wage/High-Benefits Growth Mix Behind Revenue Shortfall (G, l)
01/16/04 - Fed, Pundits Are Overestimating 'Underemployment' (L,f)
01/13/04 - Analysts Overreacting to Recent Sluggish Payroll Results (L)

2003
10/10/03 - Slow Job Creation, Not Job Losses, Behind Weak Payrolls  (E,l)
10/09/03 - Foreign Outsourcing: Not That Big; Effect Likely Positive  (E,l)
10/08/03 - Household-Payroll Job Gap Sent Growth Signal In Early ’02/’03 (E,l)
07/18/03 - The Jobless Recovery Myth (L)
05/09/03 - U.S. Mfg Still Plays Key, Though Reduced, Role (D, l)
05/07/03 - HHold-Payroll Job Gap Suggests Stronger Growth Ahead (E,l)

2002
10/17/02 - Mind The Gap: Household-Payroll Jobs Gap Hints At Pick Up (L)
06/13/02 - Smaller, More Dynamic Bias Adjustment After Revisions (D,l)
05/09/02 - Short-Term Rise In Jobless Rate Due To Special Factor (D,l)
04/19/02 - Key Labor Market Indicators Showing Improvement (L)
04/19/02 - Demystifying The Recent Surge In Claims (D,l)

2001
11/12/01 - Faltering Income Fundamentals Bode Ill For Consumer (C,l,d)
08/08/01 - July's Unchanged Jobless Rate A "Head Fake" (L,e)
07/11/01 - Real Reason(s) For Payroll/Household Job Difference (D,l)
03/14/01 - Current Slowdown Unique in 2 Important Ways (E,l)
02/21/01 - Nervous Analysts Looking In All The Wrong Places (E,c,l)

2000
12/01/00 - Surge In Claims Cause For Concern, Not Panic (L,e)
05/19/00 - Jobless Rate Below Natural Rate; Rates Up More (T,l,f)
05/08/00 - 3.9% Jobless Rate Not A Census Hiring Fluke (L,f,e)
01/12/00 - Adjusted For 'Temps', Mfg Job Picture Not As Bad As Reported (L)
01/10/00 - Why Is Payroll Job Growth Stronger Than Hhold Growth? (L,t,d)

1999
12/14/99 - Income Data: 'True' Wage Growth More Than +5% (P,l) 
10/14/99 - FOMC Cites Decreasing Pool Of Available Workers (L,f)
10/07/99 - Floyd To Limit Job Gain In Sep To +100-150K; Big Rebound In Oct (L,f)
09/16/99 - Based On ES202, Current Wage Growth Likely 5+%, Not 4-% (P,l,d) 
07/29/99 - Economy Poised For More Solid Growth; Labor Markets Still Tightening (E,f,l)
05/13/99 - Current Compensation Costs Being Understated (L,p)
03/26/99 - Phillips Curve Revisited; Higher Inflation Likely In '00 If Jobless Rate Falls Below 4% (P,l)

1998
11/30/98 - Claims Often A Misleading Indicator In Expansions (L,e)
07/07/98 - FMI & Fed Ask: Why Are Payroll Jobs Growing Faster Than Household? (L,f,d)
03/25/98 - Impact Of Unusual Weather On Economic Data (D,l)
01/28/98 - Tight Job Markets Causing Wage Acceleration (L)

1997
11/20/97 - Wages Are Surging For Low-Skill Workers (L)
11/18/97 - Midwest Labor Markets Tight, Wages Accelerating (L)
09/15/97 - The Anatomy Of Aug ’93 Payroll Job Revisions (L,d)
08/22/97 - UPS-Teamster Pact Details (L)
07/08/97 - Challenger Layoff Announcements At Decade-Low (L)
05/12/97 - Productivity's Comp Measure Superior To ECI (L,d)
04/10/97 - 2+% Labor Force Growth Not So Shocking; Should Gradually Edge Lower Near-Term (L)
04/10/97 - Wage Growth Changes (Not CPI) Are The More Useful Predictor Of Fed Policy (F,l)
02/11/97 - New Discontinuity In Household Jobs Series (D,l)
01/17/97 - Unexpected 96Q4 Strength, Unabated Stock Performance, Worry Fed (F,l)
01/15/97 - Challenger Layoffs Are Misleading; Many Recent Layoffs Are Due To Outsourcing (L)

1995-1996
10/29/96 - Why The Household Job Data May Be Better Than The Payroll Data (D,l,t)
10/10/96 - Historical Analysis Of Payroll Job Changes (D,l,e)
06/20/96 - WSJ Discouraged Workers Picture Is Misleading (L)
06/06/96 - Worldwide Population Shifts To Alter U.S. Exports (L,e,d)
04/10/96 - Temp Workers Affecting Labor Market Efficiency (L,t,d)
12/05/95 - Upcoming Payroll Jobs; Effect Of Federal Shutdown (L,e)
10/10/95 - Manufacturing Job Losses To End Soon (L)
07/31/95 - Jobs Plentiful Surpasses Jobs Hard To Get For First Time Since 1987 (L,d)
06/21/95 - Employment Surveys Show No Signs of Recession (L)
02/27/95 - Capacity Utilization Suggests Core CPI To Accelerate In Coming Year (P,l,e)