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10/08/24 - Surging Gold Prices Belie Fed ‘Confidence’ on Inflation (F,p)
04/22/24 - Fed Policy Needs to Be More Restrictive, Not Less (P,f)
2022
12/16/22 - Alternate Series Show Much Less Inflation Relief (P,f)
11/14/22 - Declaring Victory Over Inflation Is Wildly Premature (P,f)
02/28/22 - Nominal GDP Gap Shows Fed Has Uphill Fight vs. Inflation (F,p)
2021
10/25/21 - China-Based Supply Woes Will Outlast Pandemic (P)
10/20/21 - Not-So-Transient: High Inflation to Persist for Years (P)
09/17/21 - 2022 Social Security COLA to Be Biggest in 40 Years (P)
08/31/21 - Alternates: Inflation Not So High (But Still Pretty Bad) (P)
02/24/21 - Core Inflation Is Higher, More Worrisome than Fed Admits (P,f)
2020
10/19/20 - The Myth of 'Too-Low" Inflation (P)
2019
09/12/19 - Alternate Series Show Core Inflation Running Above +2% Target (P)
04/26/19 - Core PCE Inflation Lull Should Be Short-Lived (P)
03/12/19 - Other Core Inflation Measures Show Continued Pressure (P)
10/12/18 - Core Inflation Trend Continues to Exceed Fed’s +2% Target (P)
02/19/18 - Core CPI et al Show Rising Inflation Pressures (P)
2017
10/18/17 - Is Inflation ‘Too Low’? Not by These Measures (P,f)
2016
09/20/16 - Falling Food Prices Give Only Modest Boost to Real Income (P)
02/05/16 - Core PCE Likely Understates the ‘True’ Inflation Trend (P,d)
2015
04/24/15 - The Case for Lowering the Fed's Inflation Target (F,p)
2014
11/21/14 - US Deflation Is Very Unlikely, Would Be Harmless (P)
07/23/14 - Fed Cranks Up Financial Excesses as It Dismisses Inflation (P,f)
05/16/14 - Memo to Fed: Stop Being Scared of Deflation Bogeyman (P)
05/15/14 - Inflation Is Muted? Not According to 2014 Data (P)
2011
03/21/12 - By Any Measure, Inflation Is Near Fed’s +2% Target (P,d)
02/10/11 - Housing Inflation Starting to Accelerate (P)
2008
06/13/08 - Fed Likely to Hike Rates Soon,
Target Rate at 4% or Higher in '09 (F,p)
05/21/08 - Despite Good Core News, Inflation
Likely to Worsen Ahead (P,d)
04/25/08 - 'Sick' Health Care Readings
Understating Core Inflation (P)
2007
06/11/07 - Fed Has Reason for Caution:
Overall Inflation Still Too High (F,p)
05/23/07 - Housing Inflation Improving, But
Not as Much as It Seems (P)
2006
09/21/06 - Trimmed Measures Show
Weightier Inflation Problem (P,d)
08/11/06 - FOMC Goes Silent on Productivity;
Inflation Outlook Too Rosy (F,p)
08/04/06 - Wage Income, Unit Labor Cost
Trends Noticeably Higher (C,p)
05/25/06 - Inflation Is Lower -- But Really
Higher -- Than It Seems (P)
2005
09/23/05 - Total Inflation, Not Core, Should
Be the Main Focus Again (P, d)
08/16/05 - Commodity Prices Rising, But Have
Little Impact on Inflation (P,d)
04/13/05 - Easy Fed Policy, Not Wages, Is
Driving Inflation Higher (P,d)
03/28/05 - Feds Core Fallacies
Understating Inflation Prospects (P,d)
2004
10/25/04 - Housing, Not Hedonics, Distorts
CPI & Likely Fed Policy (P,f)
07/15/04 - 04H1: An Inflation Story (E, p)
05/17/04 - Deflation 'Scare': The Fed's
Self-Fulfilling Prophecy (P,f)
2003
03/20/03 - Higher Inflation, Not Deflation,
Is Real Issue (P)
2002
07/18/02 - If We Must, Some Thoughts On
Deflation (P,t)
03/15/02 - FMI Sees
"Neutral" Fed Target Rate As 3½% (F,p)
01/14/02 - All Quiet On The
Inflation Front (P,f,e)
2001
12/12/01 - Do
Not Expect Rate Hike Until PM Index Rises Above 54 (F,e,p)
11/28/01 - High Median CPI
Readings Not A Concern (P,c,e)
06/15/01 - Revisiting Fed
Policy's Impact On Inflation Trends (P,f,e)
05/18/01 - FMI Does Not See
Inflation Problem Now Or Later (P,e)
2000
09/21/00 - Examining Shifts In
Computer & Software Prices (P,e)
09/08/00 - Hi-Tech Threatening
Overall Price Stability Near-Term (P,e)
04/24/00 - Comparing The CPI
To The Consumption Deflator (P,t,d)
04/18/00 - Inflation Up; Bad
News For Fed, Stocks, & Bonds (P,f,t)
04/14/00 - AG Signals That Fed
Unlikely To Bail Out Investors Even If Turmoil Continues (F,e,p)
03/17/00 - Economy Looks Good;
Still Threat Of Higher Inflation (E,p)
1999
12/16/99 - All Is Not So Quiet
On The Inflation Front (P)
12/14/99 - Income Data: 'True'
Wage Growth More Than +5% (P,l)
11/16/99 - FOMC Should Raise
Rates - Not Be Fooled By Distortions (F,p)
09/16/99 - Based On ES202,
Current Wage Growth Likely 5+%, Not 4-% (P,l,d)
09/10/99 - Fed Concern: Core
Intermediate PPI Growth Up To 4.3% (P,f)
09/09/99 - Improving Growth
Abroad Might Lead To Higher Inflation (P,e)
08/20/99 - CPI Housing Gains
Understated Some; Should Pick Up Near-Term (D,p)
06/18/99 - New Aggregate CPI
Without Discontinuities Available (P,d)
05/13/99 - Current
Compensation Costs Being Understated (L,p)
04/16/99 - Import Price Not As
Deflationary As They Had Been (D,p,e)
03/26/99 - Phillips Curve
Revisited; Higher Inflation Likely In '00 If Jobless Rate Falls Below 4% (P,l)
1998
12/23/98 - BLS To Introduce
Important Changes To CPI In 1999 (D,p)
02/18/98 - Benchmark Will
Have Little Effect On CPI Growth (D,p)
1997
08/07/97 - Commodity
Indices Rising Despite Strong Dollar (P)
07/29/97 - Greenspan:
Benign Inflation May Be The Result Of A Productivity Growth Surge (F,p)
04/23/97 - Analysis Of
Geometric-Mean CPI (P,d,t)
04/22/97 - Technical
Adjustments Continue To Improve CPI (D,p,t)
03/24/97 - Cleveland
Feds Median CPI Offers Alternative View Of Inflation (P,d)
03/05/97 - Medical &
Housing Costs On The Rise; Higher Inflation Likely In 97-98 (P)
02/05/97 - Import Price
Surges Often Hold Down GDP Deflator (P,d)
1994-1996
12/06/96 - CPI Overstates
COLA But Less Than Boskin Commission Suggests (P,t,d)
08/22/96 - Commodity Prices
Have Little Impact On Inflation (P,d)
05/10/96 - CRB Futures Signal
NAPM Price Index, But Not Overall Inflation (P)
04/18/95 - Low Export
& Import Inflation Was Helping Hold Down U.S. Inflation (P,i)
03/13/95 - Service Wages, A
Useful Signal of Inflation, Clearly Accelerating (P,d)
02/27/95 - Capacity
Utilization Suggests Core CPI To Accelerating In Coming Year (P,l,e)
02/09/95 - BLS Statistical
Technique Favors Consensus Estimates (P)
12/13/94 - BLS Rounding
Sometimes Favors Certain Results; Consensus Estimates (P) |